Opinion: Europe Must Come to Grips with Reality
THE ELECTION OF U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP has brought uncertainty to the European continent, and the world order that has comfortably remained in place since the end of the Second World War some seventy years ago. The President has labeled NATO ‘obsolete’, has advocated on behalf of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and enthusiastically supported Brexit last year. In the words of German chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe seems to be ‘on it’s own’. This article will take a brief look at how Europe stacks up, and what steps can be take to ensure that the geopolitical clock isn’t shifted back to 1939.
The State of NATO and European Preparedness
Unfortunately, President Trump’s remarks regarding NATO and expenditures are indeed true. Of the twenty-eight member states, a mere five exceed (or even meet) the recommended two percent of GDP on defense spending. The United States expends nearly three and three quarters of it’s own GDP on it’s military, dwarfing that of Greece, the next highest spending power, by a good percent and a half.
The alliance itself admits it relies too heavily on U.S. capabilities, particularly “for the provision of essential capabilities, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, air-to-air refueling, ballistic missile defense and airborne electronic warfare.” [1]
Even with an overtly aggressive and resurgent Russia, it seems as if prominent NATO members continue to disregard the importance of defense.
The United Kingdom is actually decreasing its spending, with Her Majesty’s Army in particular being the subject of massive cuts, and just this past year, has failed to meet it’s recruiting targets by nearly a third. The situation has deteriorated so badly that the Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research, an Army think tank, has estimated that the Army’s lone operational fighting division could be wiped out in a single afternoon by Russian forces, should war come to the European continent.
In Germany, the Heer struggles with similar problems; however, their issues are much more structural than that of their English counterparts. The Germans field an army of roughly sixty thousand, which is less than the Dutch had during the Battle of the Netherlands in the Second World War. True, warfare has indeed changed extensively in the last seventy-five years, but the sixth most powerful economy in the world, and the largest in Europe, for that matter, ought to tout a more coherent defensive. They too, have suffered from shortfalls in recruiting, and a populace unwilling to accept bolstered armed forces. For an in depth look at Germany’s military, I recommend this article by National Security expert John Schindler (XXCommittee) It’s no wonder that Putin isn’t too worried about Germany.
This is not to say, by any means, that the armies of Western Europe are weak and ineffective forces, simply that most lack the capabilities for a general war without U.S. aid and interference, which, considering President Trump’s less than favorable opinion of NATO, is becoming increasingly less likely. Indeed, most European militaries have displayed valiant effort and success with the current refugee crisis, with the Italian Navy alone rescuing some one hundred and thirty nine thousand civilians since the end of 2013. [2]
Fortunately, this isn’t the case in Eastern Europe. Former Eastern Bloc nations recognize the dangers Putin’s expansionism, and are compensating accordingly. Poland has expanded it’s armed forces, created several territorial brigades, purchased new fighter jets, and has allocated an extra 8-10 billion zloty a year on military equipment. The Baltic States, too, especially Estonia, have been ramping up defense preparations and are investing heavily in military infrastructure. These nations, once crushed under the iron boot of the Soviet Union, have a unique perspective on Russian 'dirty tricks’ and have warned about Kremlin attempts to influence Western elections, and should really serve as our sort of 'canaries in the coal mines' as they were at the mercy of them for a good four decades.
Now, then, comes the hard part. Despite the United States’ current Secretary of Defense James Mattis strong support of the alliance, it seems that President Trump will likely not reciprocate these views. Although the President has not commented on this particular issue, the recently deployed combat brigade to Poland will likely be withdrawn, and Europe will be forced to fend for itself. It’s unlikely that President Trump would be willing to invoke Article V in the event of a Russian takeover of the Baltic States.
It’s important; however, to recognize, that the only way the Western liberal order can survive is by sticking together. Putin’s ultimate goal is to see the breakup of NATO and the EU, and Russian hegemony expand throughout a fractured Europe. My plea to European leaders, a generation of men and women fought and died for a free and prosperous Europe. Their efforts should not be allowed to fade from memory.
Sources and Further Points of Reference
